Futures Studies of Artificial Intelligence–Based Banking Services in the Payment Industry: Iranian Private Banks

Abstract

The present study aimed to conduct a futures study of artificial intelligence–based banking services in the payment industry of Iranian private banks. The study employed an exploratory mixed-methods approach (qualitative–quantitative). In the qualitative phase, data were collected through meta-synthesis and a systematic review of studies published in international scientific databases and were analyzed using open, axial, and selective coding. Structural analysis was also conducted using MICMAC software to examine the relationships among the variables. The results showed that the variables of “strategic leadership and support,” “organizational digital maturity,” “technological innovation,” and “interorganizational synergy” were located in the linkage cluster and played key roles in the dynamics of the banking system. Subsequently, using Scenario Wizard software, four plausible future scenarios were developed: “Coordinated Smart Ecosystem,” “Technological Advancement amid Distrust,” “Structural Loss of Opportunities,” and “Digital Crisis.” The final findings indicated that achieving a desirable future for intelligence-driven banking in Iran requires effective digital leadership, adaptive policymaking, secure infrastructure, and targeted investment in digital trust and technological innovation. Otherwise, the likelihood of a digital crisis and the erosion of banks’ competitive advantage will increase. Finally, the development of a national digital trust standard, enhancement of strategic leadership, establishment of interbank and bank–fintech collaboration networks, and implementation of technology-monitoring systems were proposed as strategic measures.