Presenting a Theoretical Framework Based on the Organic Metaphor in Futures Studies and Entrepreneurship: Introducing "Economic Spencerism" for Understanding Firm Adaptation and Survival in the Future Ecosystem

Abstract

In today’s complex, turbulent, and rapidly changing conditions, traditional models of futures studies and strategic management—mostly grounded in static trend forecasting and scenario planning—may no longer adequately address the realities of business ecosystems and economic environments. This review article, drawing on the organic metaphor, offers a novel perspective on futures studies and the analysis of organizational behavior and survival in the ecosystem of the future. The organic metaphor views businesses as living organisms that, in order to survive, are compelled to learn, remain flexible, adapt, and coexist within a competitive ecosystemic context. In this article, based on relevant literature, a theoretical framework entitled Economic Spencerism is proposed for analyzing the dynamics of adaptation and survival of business firms. This framework integrates evolutionary logic; theories of evolutionary economics, the resource-based view, organizational resilience, intellectual capital, and innovation systems. Findings derived from the analysis of data from firms active in the national big data industry indicate that organizational survival in the future ecosystem depends on simultaneous and balanced performance across three levels; weakness or dysfunction at any of these levels significantly increases the probability of elimination. Furthermore, the results confirm that survivorship bias may lead to incomplete understandings of ecosystem dynamics, and thus, attention to data concerning failures and exits is essential for a comprehensive grasp of the mechanisms of natural selection in the economy. Accordingly, only those organizations that consistently strengthen their infrastructures, expand their innovative capacities and cross-sectoral interactions, and simultaneously align with institutional and environmental changes will be able to sustain and flourish in the future ecosystem. Moreover, through the analysis of the concept of survivorship bias, this study emphasizes the necessity of considering the data of eliminated and failed entities. This research demonstrates that in the future environment—conceived as an ecosystem and as an active, living, selective, and ruthless entity—only organizations that continuously enhance their adaptive capabilities, innovation, and cross-sectoral interactions will have the chance to survive.